Trends and Developments Concerning Washington Public Labor Contracts
By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer
In the previous articles in this series, we’ve discussed inflation and inflation predictions. We have also discussed expectations for whether there will be a recession and how that might impact the job market. Two other important economic factors to discuss, as they will have some impact on labor contract settlements, are the tax revenues and budgets of local governments.
By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer
In the last two articles in this series, we discussed recent and projected CPI. We have described the recent spikes in inflation as well as economist predictions that inflation will start to taper off.
By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer
In the last Newsletter article in this series, we updated you on recent inflation numbers. This included a surprisingly large jump in the inflation reported in June, followed by a modest decline in July. Do the July numbers indicate that we’ve turned a corner? If so, how far can we expect the CPI to drop? That’s the topic that we turn to today.
By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer
Earlier this month we presented a webinar covering recent inflation and contract settlement trends with a focus on what lies ahead for groups currently in negotiations or planning to start them soon. The webinar and transcript are available on our Premium Website. This article is the first of a series on these issues.
By Jim Cline
Every arbitration contains lessons to apply to contract negotiations. Sometimes the lessons involve an extension of standards ways that arbitrators approach issues, and sometimes they involve unique situations or novel arguments on existing issues.
[Read more…]By Jim Cline
The latest CPI report continued to show high inflation numbers, even higher than the previous set. But inside those numbers were signs that the predicted slow down in inflation may lie ahead. The Seattle 12-month through April to April “W” index was reported at an eye-popping 8.1%. The All Cities index was even higher at 8.6%:
By Jim Cline
A long-delayed Island County Interest Arbitration has resulted in the Corrections Guild prevailing with a six-year wage award that, with year to year compounding, increased wages by 19.7%. The contract was delayed not just by lengthy arbitration and mediation, but also by a County Unfair Labor Practice that had resulted in canceling a scheduled 2019 hearing date. The Award covers contract years 2017 through 2022.
By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer
In the last two newsletters, we reported on the surprisingly sharp rise in inflation and how that development and the uncertainty in future inflation predictions would have a potentially large impact on wage negotiations. The jump in inflation suggests rising settlements but other developments likewise support our prediction that settlements for 2022 (and 2023) will be heading up.
By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer
In our last Newsletter, we report on the just-released June CPI numbers. As we indicated, while we had expected a sharp rise, the size of the rise caught us (and most economists) by surprise. The June national and Seattle indices exceeded 6% as did other regional CPI measures.
By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer
The “All-Cities” index is published monthly and the “Seattle” and other regional indices are published every other month but of all those reports, it is the “June” numbers that are the most watched for their potential impact on contract negotiations. While some CBAs look towards the inflation report for different months, the vast majority of contracts that specifically apply CPI use the June numbers because they come out in mid-July about the time most negotiations are launching.
