2023 Population Numbers Released by OFM

By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer

City and County April 1 annual population estimates are released the beginning of July by the Office of Financial Management Forecasting and Research Division

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Key June CPI Report: Significant Drop in CPI although Seattle Numbers Still Far Outpace the National Numbers

By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June CPI Numbers on July 12. Both the Seattle and All Cities CPI numbers dropped significantly, although the Seatle numbers continue to notably outpace the national indices. This graph shows the relative numbers over the past 12 months and to date for the “W” index:

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CPI Trends and the Impact on Negotiations Results

By Jim Cline

In our past two newsletters, we’ve discussed the continuation of higher-than-expected inflation. Those articles identified the prediction by economists earlier this year for the mid-year 2023 national inflation to subside to 3.6% and our doubts that those predictions will materialize. We are now expecting the June CPI numbers to be closer to 5% nationally and higher for the Seattle indices.

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Continued Inflation Complicates Negotiations

By Jim Cline

In our last newsletter we discussed the most recent CPI reports. It discussed the slowing but still high inflation numbers. This chart shows the 12-month trend line in the Seattle and All Cities CPI:

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CPI Continues to Ride High — But with Signs of Moderation

By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer

The latest CPI report continued to show high inflation numbers, even higher than the previous set. But inside those numbers were signs that the predicted slowdown in inflation may lie ahead. The Seattle 12-month through April to April “W” index was reported at an eye-popping 8.1%. The All-Cities index was even higher at 8.6%:

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Cline and Associates January Webcast Covers the Latest on Inflation, Contract Negotiations, and Settlement Trends

By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer

Wednesday we provided a fairly detailed live Webcast covering inflation, economic indicators, the latest in settlement trends, and where we see inflation and wage negotiations heading.  For Premium Website subscribers, the Video and Transcript are available here.

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Latest BLS CPI Report Shows Easing of Inflation, But Seattle Outpaces All City Numbers

By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer

The latest inflation numbers were reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week. The numbers have been edging down and the December CPI numbers coincide with predictions that the CPI will continue to fall and return to normal over the next year.

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Part 9: Current Negotiation Issues and Trends — Recent Contract Settlements and the Impact of Timing of the Settlements

By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer

This article continues our series on recent contract settlement trends. It uses city police settlements as the data source, but these trends seem to apply generally to other public safety occupations. In this article we cover the impact of timing (when the contract was settled) on contract settlements.

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Part 8: Current Negotiation Issues and Trends — Does Geography Impact Settlements?

By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer

This article continues are series on recent contract settlement trends. It uses city police 2022 settlements as the data source, but these trends seem to apply generally to other public safety occupations. In this article we cover the impact of location on contract settlements.

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Part 7: Current Negotiation Issues and Trends — Recent Pattern in Contract Settlements

Jim Cline and Kate Kremer

This article continues our series on recent developments influencing contract negotiations. One of the most important influences on contract negotiations (and arbitration) is contract settlements, especially among comparable jurisdictions. There have been some unusual patterns that have developed in Washington public safety labor negotiations, and these seem to be highly influenced by external economic events.

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