Of all the monthly and bimonthly inflation reports, the June report is the one most impactful on Washington public safety labor negotiations. Many multi-year contracts use a CPI formula tied to the June numbers and for those not tied to an agreed formula, the June numbers are the ones most often cited in negotiations as the basis for the floor of wage increases.
The recently released June numbers were especially watched this year because of the recent uncertainty surrounding direction of inflation. The earlier numbers in the year were showing a steady decline in the direction of 2% but the June numbers showed a clear reversal of course. In early April we described the impact the tariff battles were creating leading to uncertainty not only as to inflation but the broader direction of the economy. While economists’ predictions vary widely, the general consensus seems to be that the June numbers reported below are likely to be surpassed in the months ahead.
This chart shows the 12-month numbers for the Seattle and All Cities CPI-W:
This chart shows the latest CPI for a number of other inflation indices often used in Washington contract negotiations:
In a future article we’ll discuss at more length the overall impact these new numbers may have on current and future contract settlement trends.
