The Bureau of Labor Statistics just released CPI report that reports the August Seattle CPI-W at 2.7%, one full percentage point ahead of the All Cities number. These numbers are virtually identical to the last bimonthly (June) report in which the Seattle Index was reported at 2.7% and the all cities Index was reported at 1.6%. This chart shows the last 12 months of CPI-W data:
A couple recent reports of the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council released this past week, shows some modest good news. The “Economic and Revenue Update” highlights include its finding that “Washington employment, income, and housing are doing as well or better than expected but exports are weakening.” It also reports State government revenues as slightly higher than forecasted “mainly due to higher-than-expected real estate excise tax receipts.”
The most recent batch of national economic reports from the past couple weeks, continue to reflect an economy that is recovering slowly. On balance, the news is positive. The economic indicators from earlier in the summer of a possible recession seem to be receding, replaced with more positive, albeit, not vibrant indicators.
The latest monthly report from the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council reports on some modest improvements. The Council’s August Report contains the following highlights:
The Bureau of Labor Statistic’s release of national inflation numbers for July shows that national inflation was level for the month. On a 12 month basis, the All Cities CPI-U declined from 1.7%to 1.4 % and the All Cities CPI-W moved from 1.6% to 1.3%. The Seattle inflation numbers are reported bimonthly, with the bimonthly August numbers due out in mid-September. Economist took the report as an indication that the soft economy was keeping inflation in check. Economist James Marple explained: Inflation is on a clear downward trajectory. With an unemployment rate at 8.3 percent, weak economic growth, both domestically and globally, and a rising U.S. dollar, inflation is likely to drift lower over the coming months. However, most economists are also predicting that the current lull in inflation will not continue long. The current summer drought is expected to create a jump in food prices later this fall, pushing inflation higher.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its awaited June CPI report and it reveals that the National All-Cities index has moderated more than the Seattle index. The Seattle June CPI-W was reported at 2.7%, more than a point ahead of the June All Cities CPI-W which was reported at 1.6%. In both cases, these indices dropped significantly from last June when inflation was running near 4%. This chart shows the last 12 months of CPI-W data.
In a somewhat rare occurrence over the last several years, the State’s July revenue report surprised to the positive for once suggesting a possible turnaround in its finances. The report, released July 11, 2012, indicated that receipts into the General Fund for the period of June 11- July 10 were $66.5 million (or 5.5%) higher than projected in the June revenue forecast.
