The latest report of the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, provides a mixed picture of economic strength both nationally and locally.
Recent economic news has been characterized as tepid at best, but the most recent Washington State Department of Revenue report offers one of our clearest recent indicators that a solid economic recovery may be underway, at least in Washington State. The recently released Department of Revenue First Quarter Sales tax numbers show a statewide jump from the preceding 12 months (Quarter 1, 2012) of 8 percent.
The March 2013 report of the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council identifies the continued mixed economic signals from both the National and State economy.
The Washington State Employment Security Department released its monthly employment report for February 2013 today, confirming that a recent trend in new jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate is no mirage, and may be gathering steam. The headline numbers indicate that the State, particularly the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett region, is seeing a strong rebound in new jobs.
The State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council released its updated March revenue report and forecast today, showing some improvements in the State’s budget for the current biennium. The revenue forecast for the current biennium has been increased by $58.8 million by the Council. This reports an improvement over the November 2012 forecast, based on an increase in likely tax collections during the current biennium.
The November national inflation number, as reported by the All Cities CPI-W dropped to 1.7%, a full half percent below the October report for the same Index (2.2%). The All Cities CPI-U was reported at 1.8%. (These indices report inflation as measured over 12 months). According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, the drop of inflation is almost entirely attributable to a decrease in gas and energy prices.
The newly-released September 2012 report of the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council identifies an economy, of a slow national economy coupled with a slightly stronger State economy. This report is consistent with the other recent Forecast Council reports. As we have discussed, the mixed economic conditions impede a full fiscal recovery for the State and local governments and serves as a significant constraint on the current collective bargaining environment. Until government budgets rebuild reserves and the labor market picks up momentum, we are unlikely to return to widespread robust contract settlements.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics just released CPI report that reports the August Seattle CPI-W at 2.7%, one full percentage point ahead of the All Cities number. These numbers are virtually identical to the last bimonthly (June) report in which the Seattle Index was reported at 2.7% and the all cities Index was reported at 1.6%. This chart shows the last 12 months of CPI-W data:
