Every month the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases an inflation update on national inflation numbers and every other month they release a “bi-monthly” update that includes regional data, including the Seattle CPI. In mid-March BLS released their report showing inflation through February.
We have been closely tracking and reporting on inflation trends. The recent “ups and downs” (in inflation has implications for the broader economy but it has some rather direct impacts on our contract negotiations.
In the last newsletter, we reported on the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the June CPI numbers. As was noted, over the past 4 months the CPI has slid dramatically, although the Seattle numbers remain high by historic standards and substantially outpace the national CPI indices. The June CPI-W numbers are reflected in this graph.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June CPI Numbers on July 12. Both the Seattle and All Cities CPI numbers dropped significantly, although the Seatle numbers continue to notably outpace the national indices. This graph shows the relative numbers over the past 12 months and to date for the “W” index.
In our past two newsletters, we’ve discussed the continuation of higher-than-expected inflation. Those articles identified the prediction by economists earlier this year for the mid-year 2023 national inflation to subside to 3.6% and our doubts that those predictions will materialize. We are now expecting the June CPI numbers to be closer to 5% nationally and higher for the Seattle indices.
In our last newsletter we discussed the most recent CPI reports. It discussed the slowing but still high inflation numbers. This chart shows the 12-month trend line in the Seattle and All Cities CPI:
The latest CPI report continued to show high inflation numbers, even higher than the previous set. But inside those numbers were signs that the predicted slowdown in inflation may lie ahead. The Seattle 12-month through April to April “W” index was reported at an eye-popping 8.1%. The All-Cities index was even higher at 8.6%:
Wednesday we provided a fairly detailed live Webcast covering inflation, economic indicators, the latest in settlement trends, and where we see inflation and wage negotiations heading. For Premium Website subscribers, the Video and Transcript are available here.
The latest inflation numbers were reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week. The numbers have been edging down and the December CPI numbers coincide with predictions that the CPI will continue to fall and return to normal over the next year.
This article continues our series on recent contract settlement trends. It uses city police settlements as the data source, but these trends seem to apply generally to other public safety occupations. In this article we cover the impact of timing (when the contract was settled) on contract settlements.
