Latest Report from State Economic Forecast Council Highlights Improved Economic Conditions

By Jim Cline

economicsThe February “Economic and Revenue Update” from the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council provides a good summary of the recent rounds of good economic news both nationally and locally. The key findings by the Revenue Council include that on the national level:

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Quarter 2 Retail Sales Report Shows Continued Rebound

By Jim Cline

The Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council just released their November report on the State and national economy and like their report last month, it provided mixed news about the state of the economy. [Read more…]

Latest State Economic Forecast Report Continues to Present Mixed Signals

By Jim Cline

The Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council just released their November report on the State and national economy and like their report last month, it provided mixed news about the state of the economy. [Read more…]

Latest State Economic and Revenue Report Provides “Mixed Signals”

By Jim Cline

The latest report  of the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council,  provides a mixed picture of economic strength both nationally and locally. 

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Surge in Sales Tax Revenue Presages Improved Negotiation Outlook

By Jim Cline

Recent economic news has been characterized as tepid at best, but the most recent Washington State Department of Revenue report offers one of our clearest recent indicators that a solid economic recovery may be underway, at least in Washington State.  The recently released Department of Revenue First Quarter Sales tax numbers show a statewide jump from the preceding 12 months (Quarter 1, 2012) of 8 percent.  The City sales tax numbers can be found here. The County numbers can be found here. [Read more…]

Latest Report of Forecast Council Identifies Mixed Economic Signals

By Jim Cline

The March 2013 report of the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council  identifies the continued mixed economic signals from both the National and State economy. The key findings of the Council for the National economy included:

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February Washington State Employment Report Confirms Job Surge, Drop in Unemployment Rate

By Christopher Casillas

The Washington State Employment Security Department released its monthly employment report for Feburary 2013 today, confirming that a recent trend in new jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate is no mirage, and may be gathering steam.  The headline numbers indicate that the State, particularly the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett region, is seeing a strong rebound in new jobs, specifically: [Read more…]

State Revenue Forecast for March Shows Modest Improvement

By Christopher Casillas

The State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council released its updated March revenue report and forecast today, showing some improvements in the State’s budget for the current biennium.  The revenue forecast for the current biennium has been increased by $58.8 million by the Council.  This reports an improvement over the November 2012 forecast, based on an increase in likely tax collections during the current biennium.  The State now predicts that revenue into its General Fund for the 2011-2013 biennium, will most likely come in at $30.536 billion.  The Council noted that uncertainty remains high due to unknown economic impacts, like the federal sequestration, as well as ongoing economic crises around the globe. 

Latest Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Report Contains Some Positive News

By Jim Cline

The December report of the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council,contains some mildly good news.  The highlights of the report include:

  •  Economic impacts of Hurricane Sandy were likely reflected in weak personal consumption data but not Bureau of Labor Statistics employment numbers.
  •  November U.S. employment grew by 146,000 jobs; September and October employment data were revised down by a total of 49,000 jobs.
  •  Growth in real GDP for the third quarter was revised up to 2.7% (SAAR) due to faster inventory accumulation.
  •  Washington employment continues to grow at a moderate rate.
  •  Housing is looking increasingly positive.
  •  Regional inflation is cooling on slower rent growth.
  • Major General Fund-State revenue collections for the November 11 – December 10, 2012 collection period were $72.7 million (4.3%) higher than the November forecast.
  • Revenue Act collections were $39.4 million (4.4%) higher than forecasted and other revenue was $33.4 million (4.1%) higher.
  •  Some of this month’s positive variance was due to the timing of payments, so the variance will be at least partially reversed next month. The $20 million positive variance in real estate excise tax collections, however, should remain.

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National November CPI Index Drops from October

By Jim Cline

The November national inflation number, as reported by the All Cities CPI-W dropped to 1.7%, a full half percent below the October report for the same Index (2.2%).  The All Cities CPI-U was reported at 1.8%.  (These indices report inflation as measured over 12 months). According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, the drop of inflation is almost entirely attributable to a decrease in gas and energy prices. [Read more…]